{"id":47188,"date":"2025-09-04T16:54:52","date_gmt":"2025-09-04T11:24:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ferozepuronline.com\/?p=47188"},"modified":"2025-09-04T21:09:01","modified_gmt":"2025-09-04T15:39:01","slug":"trumps-tariffs-navigating-the-new-reality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ferozepuronline.com\/?p=47188","title":{"rendered":"TRUMPS TARIFFS – NAVIGATING THE NEW REALITY"},"content":{"rendered":"

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TRUMPS TARIFFS – NAVIGATING THE NEW REALITY\u00a0 \"\"<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

TRUMPS TARIFFS – NAVIGATING THE NEW REALITY <\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n

On 27 Aug 2025 at 9.31 AM, as the additional 25 percent \u2018punitive\u2019 tariffs were slapped on India, Trump for good measure finally shed his \u2018mukhota\u2019\u2026..the veneer of effusive bonding with Prime Minister Modi.\u00a0 The writing had been on the wall since the G-20 summit at Osaka in June 2019, but India in the mould of many others imagined they could talk through the threats. \u00a0Now that the \u2018head spinning\u2019 tariffs are out of Uncle Sam\u2019s \u2018top hat\u2019, the ball is firmly in India\u2019s court!<\/p>\n

The customised prescription for India has more to do with MTG (making Trump great), than MAGA.\u00a0 The immediate casus belli of additional tariffs is if anything else, an attempt to shift the blame for his failure to force peace between Russia-Ukraine, and on a personal level, India\u2019s intransigence to feed his narcissist appetite as the \u2018prince of peace\u2019 in India\u2019s backyard, the latter perhaps playing an outsized role! \u00a0Some also suggest that, Trump felt slighted by Modi giving him the miss during his state visit to USA in Sep 2024; a meeting which the former had grandiosely declared to the media, and which still rankles in his mind. \u00a0Whatever the case, it is also a fact that, \u2018envy is the companion of fame\u2019 and India\u2019s progression does not have many enthusiastic endorsers. In sum, the pot was already simmering; it needed a trigger to bring the broth to a boil. Interestingly, amidst all the accusations, Trump has continued to hail Prime Minister Modi, a la Mark Antony in his machiavellian speech at Caesar\u2019s funeral\u2026\u2019but Brutus was an honourable man\u2019. So much for being Shakespearean in style and imperial in ambition!<\/p>\n

USA has a history of \u2018using tariffs as a bludgeon to coerce other nations to tow the line\u2019.\u00a0 Starting from the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs in 1930 to the Steel War with Europe in 2002 and\u00a0 even the Trump tariffs during his first presidency, these were largely specific tariffs.\u00a0 However, now with his \u2018laddish\u2019 leadership and economic ultra nationalistic \u2018America Only\u2019 policy, Trump has shifted the goal post with the sheer span of the tariffs, making it a multi-front tariff war. In the bargain, he has also usurped for himself the dubious distinction of unseating fellow Republican William McKinley<\/a>, the 25th<\/sup> President of the USA, as the \u2018Tariff King\u2019.\u00a0 Historically, most analyses reveal that while tariffs may generate returns, this is outweighed by the negative impacts on economic growth, inflation and inter-state relations. It doesn\u2019t take too much mother\u2019s wit to comprehend what has been aptly stated by the former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, Evan A. Feigenbaum that, the \u2018re-politicization of US-India relations is a slow motion catastrophe.\u2019<\/p>\n

The euphoria of a sudden glut in customs revenue @ about $160 billion, has \u00a0received the first hit from the US Court of Appeals, declaring it illegal to invoke national emergency as justification for hiking the import taxes. Trump will brow beat to get a favourable decision from the Supreme Court but, in the unlikely event that this doesn\u2019t happen, the refund to importers in Trump\u2019s own words will, \u2018literally destroy the United States of America.\u2019 \u00a0Donald Trump runs the real risk of going down in the history of USA, as the first President against whom impeachment proceedings have been initiated thrice\u2026and perhaps this time booted out as well!\u00a0 A country which prides itself as the leader in human rights also needs to be reminded that the reckless decision of its President is also an indirect attack on the realization of certain human rights for individuals and businesses.<\/p>\n

A back of the envelope calculation suggests that India may stand to lose close to 900-1000 billion dollars, even though the cumulative tariff will actually impact only about 60 percent of Indian exports.\u00a0 This is by all accounts the greatest challenge to Prime Minister Modi in his 11 years at the helm, one which he seems to be prepared for, as he avers, \u2018I know that I will personally have to pay a heavy price, but I am ready for it\u2026.\u2019 Whatever the cost, it will require the government to make good all its claims of a robust economy and diplomatic heft.\u00a0 It is\u00a0 also the time to redeem the \u2018bear hugs\u2019 and leverage the diaspora jamborees, which were sought to be an endorsement of the leadership. Let\u2019s hope the cumulative economic and political heat doesn\u2019t make it a \u2018survival\u2019 battle, which is perhaps what \u2018Doland\u2019 and Co. will be yearning for.<\/p>\n

It is somewhat disconcerting that the tariff headwinds are blowing as India is transiting through Amrit Kaal towards the ambitious goal of Viksit Bharat in 2047; therein lies the challenge. But then, as Albert Einstein had famously remarked that, \u2018in the midst of every crisis, lies great opportunity\u2019. In that sense, Trump has unwittingly given India a significant opportunity, if not a wakeup call, to reorient and recalibrate the economic compass both domestically and internationally. A tit for tat approach may soothe nationalistic emotions, but may be counterproductive.\u00a0 The overall framework of mitigation needs to embody measures to obviate future vulnerability to similar predicaments. India\u2019s pole position in the Global South and its global influence as the fourth largest economy should make this task easier. And, finally, the yardstick of a nation to measure its self esteem is to see to what extent it is self reliant.\u00a0 The country needs to switch from the highway to the expressway, and accelerate towards swadeshi and atmanirbharta\u2026..not out of desperation, but out of pride!<\/p>\n

It is worth mentioning that \u2018tariffs are largely one and done type of pressure. Once adopted and raised to a level that destroys the trade relationship, they lose leverage.\u2019 This implies that if India successfully stems the tide and continues to source oil from Russia, Trump may well work out new ways to pressure New Delhi. India\u2019s contingency planning must take this into account.\u00a0 We need not respond to the daily dose of invectives being heaped by Trump and his Trumpeters on India, but we can certainly endeavour to ensure that USA remains open for business and does not become a \u2018shuthole.\u2019 \u00a0Trump\u2019s romance with Asim Munir too is not without motives\u2026..for the time being his fling with the \u2018dump truck full of gravel\u2019 is to spite the \u2018shining mercedes\u2019!\u00a0 Time will tell how Trump will leverage Pakistan to keep the pressure on India. The peril is that Pakistan may well once again end up becoming a \u2018geopolitical football\u2019, with all its unintended downsides!<\/p>\n

Domestically, the pressing priority is a \u2018whole of society approach\u2019\u2026\u2026it is a shared problem and every citizen of India has a role to play. \u00a0We have the shining example of the swadeshi movement led by the trio of \u2018Lal-Bal-Pal\u2019, who championed the use of domestic goods, during the national movement, in 1905. Most importantly amidst this challenge, the political leadership must act as a unifying force, give direction, not mislead and, embody the changes they want to see, influencing others through their attitude, behavior and actions\u2026..something which is gravely deficient. Finally, the nation as a whole needs to talk less and do more and stop tooting one\u2019s own horn\u2026.we may like to take a leaf out of our eastern neighbour!<\/p>\n

Prime Minister Lal\u00a0 Bahadur Shastri\u00a0 had remarked that, \u2018there comes a time in the life of every nation when it stands at the crossroads of history and must choose which way to go.\u2019\u00a0 India is standing at the cusp of change; we need to stand up and fight bullying and coercion and ensure the country\u2019s strategic autonomy is not compromised. The world is watching; it is a litmus test for the potential \u2018vishwaguru\u2019!<\/p>\n

(Major General Rajiv Edwards, VSM** (retd) is a historical researcher and commentator on societal issues.\u00a0 He is apolitical. Views expressed are personal)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  TRUMPS TARIFFS – NAVIGATING THE NEW REALITY\u00a0 TRUMPS TARIFFS – NAVIGATING THE NEW REALITY On 27 Aug 2025 at 9.31 AM, as the additional 25 percent \u2018punitive\u2019 tariffs were slapped on India, Trump for good measure finally shed his \u2018mukhota\u2019\u2026..the veneer of effusive bonding with Prime Minister Modi.\u00a0 The writing had been on the …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":47191,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47188","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ferozepuronline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47188","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ferozepuronline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ferozepuronline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ferozepuronline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ferozepuronline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=47188"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/ferozepuronline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47188\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":47206,"href":"https:\/\/ferozepuronline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47188\/revisions\/47206"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ferozepuronline.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/47191"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ferozepuronline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=47188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ferozepuronline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=47188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ferozepuronline.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=47188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}